Modeling short-run electricity demand with long-term growth rates and consumer price elasticity in commercial and industrial sectors

Amy Pielow, Ramteen Sioshansi and Matthew C. Roberts

Energy, 2012, vol. 46, issue 1, 533-540

Abstract: This paper specifies and estimates state-level models of short- and long-term electricity demand in the United States. The short-term model predicts hourly load based on weather and calendar inputs. The long-term model estimates interannual demand, and includes population, prices, and gross state product as predictors. These models are combined to incorporate the short- and long-term trends in electricity consumption when generating forecasts of diurnal patterns into the future. Finally, the authors investigate the effects of short-run price elasticities of demand. The short-term model is shown to be within 95% accuracy of actual levels in out-of-sample tests.

Keywords: Electricity demand; Commercial; Industrial; Long-term growth; Elasticity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:46:y:2012:i:1:p:533-540

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.07.059

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