Forecasting electric utility fossil-fuel consumption

Noel D. Uri

Energy, 1980, vol. 5, issue 11, 1155-1162

Abstract: The objective of this analysis is to develop a model to forecast the consumption of fossil fuels by electric utilities on a month-to-month basis. A scheme is devised and implemented that attributes fossil-fuel generation (exclusive of coal) to the consumption of residual fuel oil, distillate fuel oil, crude oil, and natural gas. A multinomial logit specification is used whereby the share of each of these fuels is a function of relative prices, weather, time, seasonal factors, and extraneous influences (e.g. a coal strike). The results agree well with actual shares.

Date: 1980
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:5:y:1980:i:11:p:1155-1162

DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(80)90084-5

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