Accurate medium-term wind power forecasting in a censored classification framework

Carsten Croonenbroeck and Christian Dahl

Energy, 2014, vol. 73, issue C, 221-232

Abstract: We provide a wind power forecasting methodology that exploits many of the actual data's statistical features, in particular both-sided censoring. While other tools ignore many of the important “stylized facts” or provide forecasts for short-term horizons only, our approach focuses on medium-term forecasts, which are especially necessary for practitioners in the forward electricity markets of many power trading places; for example, NASDAQ OMX Commodities (formerly Nord Pool OMX Commodities) in northern Europe. We show that our model produces turbine-specific forecasts that are significantly more accurate in comparison to established benchmark models and present an application that illustrates the financial impact of more accurate forecasts obtained using our methodology.

Keywords: Censored regression; Wind energy; Forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:73:y:2014:i:c:p:221-232

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.06.013

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