Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources

V.K. Semenychev, E.I. Kurkin and E.V. Semenychev

Energy, 2014, vol. 75, issue C, 244-251

Abstract: In this study, we review mathematical models of trends in the production of non-renewable resources. We propose new models that allow specifying curve asymmetry and use genetic algorithms as curve-fitting methods. We estimate the quality of fit of our proposed models and use them to predict oil production in the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries, the EU, the U.S., Norway, Syria, the UK, and some fields in Russia; gas production in the EU, the UK and Italy; shale gas production in the U.S.; coal production in the U.S. and Germany; as well as global gold production. The models fit the data accurately in all these cases.

Keywords: Oil; Gas; Coal; Gold; Production; Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:75:y:2014:i:c:p:244-251

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.07.063

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