The selection of key technologies by the silicon photovoltaic industry based on the Delphi method and AHP (analytic hierarchy process): Case study of China

Yong Tang, Honghang Sun, Qiang Yao and Yibo Wang

Energy, 2014, vol. 75, issue C, 474-482

Abstract: Crystalline silicon solar cells play a leading role in the photovoltaic market. In order to select the key technologies related to silicon solar cells for the next 5–10 years, a Delphi-AHP (analytic hierarchy process) framework is presented to analyze the potential space for each technology in the solar cell industrial chain. China's silicon photovoltaic industry has been determined as the main research subject. The framework consists of three steps. First, the Delphi method is applied and a technologies list consisting of 43 techniques are determined. In the second step, an analytical hierarchy process model has been conducted and the expert Delphi method has been used to obtain weighted list of values for each technology with the input of over 300 expert questionnaires. In the last step, statistical research is carried out and the ascension interval of the cost, efficiency and energy consumption in the near future is given. Fifteen top key technologies including seven related to the fabrication of cells have been selected, and it was found that the technologies with great potential for cost and energy consumption are mainly distributed at the front-end of the industrial chain, while key technologies for improving efficiency are mainly concentrated at the back-end.

Keywords: Silicon solar cells; Delphi method; AHP (analytic hierarchy process); Key technology; Cost (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544214009396
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:75:y:2014:i:c:p:474-482

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.08.003

Access Statistics for this article

Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser

More articles in Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().