A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway

L. Fiévet, Z. Forró, P. Cauwels and D. Sornette

Energy, 2015, vol. 79, issue C, 288-297

Abstract: We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 5.7 ± 0.3 billion barrels for Norway and 3.0 ± 0.3 billion barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using an extrapolation of aggregate production.

Keywords: Oil; Peak; Forecast; Monte-Carlo; Discovery; Field (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:79:y:2015:i:c:p:288-297

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2014.11.014

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