Oil-saving pathways until 2030 for road freight transportation in China based on a cost-optimization model

Weiqi Li, Yaping Dai, Linwei Ma, Han Hao, Haiyan Lu, Rosemary Albinson and Zheng Li

Energy, 2015, vol. 86, issue C, 369-384

Abstract: This paper proposed a COSM (cost-optimization superstructure model) and derived the optimized oil-saving pathways for road freight transportation in China until 2030. The optimization target of the COSM was to minimize the accumulated energy and vehicle costs from 2010 to 2030 by choosing the most cost-effective fuel option for newly registered trucks each year. Based on the COSM, three scenarios were developed to evaluate the oil-saving pathway in terms of imported crude oil price, available alternative fuels and GHG emission reduction. The scenario analysis results indicate that: (1) for scenario A, the accumulated oil-saving potential was approximately about 13%, while the oil-saving potential of improving fuel consumption rate and load running rate was 17% and 16%; (2) for scenario B, the accumulated oil-saving potential increased to 82% in reference oil price and 23% in low oil price; (3) for scenario C, to reduce per ton of GHG emission, the increased cost will increase from 34 USD to 450 USD when the GHG emission target decreased from 15.4 billion tons to the turn point of 13.5 billion tons.

Keywords: Road freight transportation; Oil saving; Cost-optimization; GHG emission; Alternative fuel (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (13)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:86:y:2015:i:c:p:369-384

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.04.033

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