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Methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian market for el-certificates

Ove Wolfgang, Stefan Jaehnert and Birger Mo

Energy, 2015, vol. 88, issue C, 322-333

Abstract: In this paper we describe a novel methodology for forecasting in the Swedish–Norwegian el-certificate market, which is a variant of a tradable green certificate scheme. For the forecasting, the el-certificate market is integrated in the electricity-market model EMPS, which has weekly to hourly time-step length, whereas the planning horizon can be several years. Strategies for the certificate inventory are calculated by stochastic dynamic programming, whereas penalty-rates for non-compliance during the annual settlement of certificates are determined endogenously.

Keywords: El-certificates; TGC; Electricity; Forecasting; RES-E; Stochastic dynamic programming (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:88:y:2015:i:c:p:322-333