Appraisal of the support vector machine to forecast residential heating demand for the District Heating System based on the monthly overall natural gas consumption

Nima Izadyar, Hossein Ghadamian, Hwai Chyuan Ong, Zeinab Moghadam, Chong Wen Tong and Shahaboddin Shamshirband ()

Energy, 2015, vol. 93, issue P2, 1558-1567

Abstract: DHS (District Heating System) is one of the most efficient technologies which has been used to meet residential thermal demand. In this study, the most accurate forecasting of the residential heating demand is investigated via soft computing method. The objective of this study is to obtain the most accurate prediction of the residential heating consumption to employ forecasting result for designing optimum DHS system as a possible substitute of a pipeline natural gas in BAHARESTAN Town. For this purpose, three Support Vector Machine (SVM) models namely SVM coupled with the discrete wavelet transform (SVM-Wavelet), the firefly algorithm (SVM-FFA) and using the radial basis function (SVM-RBF) were analyzed. The estimation and prediction results of these models were compared with two other soft computing methods (ANN (Artificial Neural Network) and GP (Genetic programming)) by using three statistical indicators i.e. RMSE (root means square error), coefficient of determination (R2) and Pearson coefficient (r). Based on the experimental outputs, the SVM-Wavelet method can lead to slightly accurate forecasting of the monthly overall natural gas demand.

Keywords: Residential natural gas demand; DHS (District heating system); Estimation; Wavelet and firefly algorithms (FFAs); SVM (Support vector machine) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (34)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:93:y:2015:i:p2:p:1558-1567

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.015

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