 Introducing the Temporal Distortion Index to perform a bidimensional analysis of renewable energy forecastLaura Frías-Paredes, Fermín Mallor, Teresa León and Martín Gastón-Romeo Energy, 2016, vol. 94, issue C, 180-194 Abstract: Wind has been the largest contributor to the growth of renewal energy during the early 21st century. However, the natural uncertainty that arises in assessing the wind resource implies the occurrence of wind power forecasting errors which perform a considerable role in the impacts and costs in the wind energy integration and its commercialization. The main goal of this paper is to provide a deeper insight in the analysis of timing errors which leads to the proposal of a new methodology for its control and measure. A new methodology, based on Dynamic Time Warping, is proposed to be considered in the estimation of accuracy as attribute of forecast quality. A new dissimilarity measure, the Temporal Distortion Index, among time series is introduced to complement the traditional verification measures found in the literature. Furthermore we provide a bi-criteria perspective to the problem of comparing different forecasts. The methodology is illustrated with several examples including a real case. Keywords: Forecast accuracy; Temporal misalignment; Dynamic time warping; Renewable energy; Temporal distortion index; Bidimensional error (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:94:y:2016:i:c:p:180-194 DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.10.093 Access Statistics for this article Energy is currently edited by Henrik Lund and Mark J. Kaiser More articles in Energy from Elsevier |
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