Optimal dynamic allocation of mobile plants to monetize associated or stranded natural gas, part II: Dealing with uncertainty

Siah Hong Tan and Paul I. Barton

Energy, 2016, vol. 96, issue C, 461-467

Abstract: Using the Bakken shale play as a case study, the previous part of this two-part series demonstrated how small-scale mobile plants could be used to monetize associated or stranded gas effectively. Here, we address the issue of uncertainty in future supply, demand and price conditions. To this end, we modified our multi-period optimization framework to a stochastic programming framework to account for various scenarios with different parameter realizations in the future. The maximum ENPV (expected net present value) obtained was $2.01 billion, higher than the NPV obtained in the previous part. In addition, the value of the stochastic solution was 0.11% of the optimal ENPV, indicating that the flexible nature of mobile plants affords them a great advantage when dealing with uncertainty.

Keywords: Natural gas monetization; Mobile modular plants; Mixed-integer linear programming; Two-stage stochastic programming; Parametric uncertainty; Bakken shale play (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:energy:v:96:y:2016:i:c:p:461-467

DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2015.12.069

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