Accounting and system dynamics simulation of water resource liabilities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone, China

Dandan Zhang, Bo Liu, Pengfei Liu and Zeyu Wang

Evaluation and Program Planning, 2025, vol. 111, issue C

Abstract: Based on the concept of sustainable water resources management, this study defines water resources liability (WRL) as the compensation liability formed in the process of unreasonable utilization of water resources, which will lead to the damage of resources and environment. Combined with system dynamics (SD) method, a simulation model of WRL is constructed to analyze the WRL of the Yangtze River Economic Zone (YREZ) from 2021 to 2030 in three development modes, which are status quo continuation mode, economic development mode, and resource and environment-friendly mode. The results reveal that: (1) In the status quo continuation mode, the scale of WRL can be effectively controlled, and the WRL will be reduced to 11.20 billion m3 in 2030. However, the WRL of Jiangsu, Jiangxi and Hunan show a rapid growth trend. (2) In the economic development mode, agricultural and domestic water consumption increase significantly, and the WRL will be close to 50 billion m3 in 2030, indicating that excessive pursuit of economic development in terms of speed and scale will lead to increased demand for water resources and aggravate water environment pollution. (3) In the resource and environment-friendly mode, the WRL is estimated to be 1.09 billion m3 in 2021 and would decrease to 0 billion m3. This mode can alleviate the situation of water shortage and pollution, and the impact of water resources utilization on the environment will be minimized. This study provides a theoretical basis for the government to formulate countermeasures to promote the coordinated development of the social economy and water resource system.

Keywords: Scenario prediction; Sustainable utilization of water resources; Water resources liability; Yangtze River Economic Zone (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:epplan:v:111:y:2025:i:c:s0149718925000539

DOI: 10.1016/j.evalprogplan.2025.102586

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