Factors affecting success in business: Management theories/tools versus predicting changes

Spyros Makridakis

European Management Journal, 1996, vol. 14, issue 1, 1-20

Abstract: Management theories and tools, like the fashion industry have their moment of glory and die. Very few survive and, in some cases, their passing leaves extensive corporate damage in their wake. Spyros Makridakis reviews the large number of theories that briefly blossomed from the 1960s onwards, and also looks to see if prescriptions can be learned from examples of 'excellent' companies. He advises against extrapolating from past success stories since the environment continually changes. Companies will stand a much higher chance of success in the future if they follow a strategy of expecting change and adopting an attitude which accepts that future performance will be directly linked to accurately predicting forthcoming change and correctly assessing their implications. While human beings have not been too successful at predicting technological change, one thing is certain, it is highly likely that computers and telecommunications will have a continuing outstanding impact on data processing and the performance of tasks as their costs fall and speed increases exponentially. The consequences for business and society will be dramatic. Spyros Makridakis explores these consequences, drawing an analogy between the industrial and information revolutions. Among other conclusions, he emphasizes the importance of educating and motivating corporate staff to innovate in the newly-competitive environment generated by advances in the information industry.

Date: 1996
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