Rating agencies' credit signals: An analysis of sovereign watch and outlook

Rasha Alsakka and Owain ap Gwilym

International Review of Financial Analysis, 2012, vol. 21, issue C, 45-55

Abstract: We analyse sovereign watch and outlook signals from Moody's, S&P and Fitch. Prior literature shows strong market reactions to these signals, which arguably contain more new information than rating changes. We show that the agencies' actions imply different policies: S&P has more emphasis on short-term accuracy, while Moody's actions are consistent with greater stability. We find evidence of momentum in negative (not positive) outlook signals, but no watch momentum. We also examine the lead–lag relationships, finding that S&P (Fitch) demonstrates the least (most) links with other agencies' actions. Moody's tends to be the first mover for positive outlook and watch signals.

Keywords: Credit rating agencies; Sovereign outlook; Sovereign watch; Lead–lag relationship; Momentum (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G1 G2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (17)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:finana:v:21:y:2012:i:c:p:45-55

DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2011.10.002

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