On comparison of experts

Itay Kavaler and Rann Smorodinsky

Games and Economic Behavior, 2019, vol. 118, issue C, 94-109

Abstract: A policy maker faces a sequence of unknown outcomes. At each stage two (self-proclaimed) experts provide probabilistic forecasts on the outcome in the next stage. A comparison test is a protocol for the policy maker to (eventually) decide which of the two experts is better informed. The protocol takes as input the sequence of pairs of forecasts and actual outcomes and (weakly) ranks the two experts.

Keywords: Forecasting; Probability; Testing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C70 C73 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:118:y:2019:i:c:p:94-109

DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2019.08.005

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