Move orders in contests: Equilibria and winning chances

Lei Gao, Jingfeng Lu and Zhewei Wang

Games and Economic Behavior, 2025, vol. 150, issue C, 436-468

Abstract: This paper studies general two-player sequential-move competitions, accommodating a full spectrum of Tullock contest technology and contestants' asymmetry. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a preemptive equilibrium to prevail in both strong-lead and weak-lead contests, and discover a characteristic equation to pin down the players' effort ratio (which fully determines their winning chances) and their effort levels when a non-preemptive equilibrium prevails. We find that while the strong player always has a higher winning chance when moving first, simultaneous moves sometimes maximize the weak player's winning odds. We further allow the move orders endogenous through winning-odd-maximizing coaches' independent choices.

Keywords: Tullock contests; Simultaneous contests; Strong-lead/weak-lead sequential contests; Non-preemptive equilibria; Preemptive equilibria; Winning chances (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 D81 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:150:y:2025:i:c:p:436-468

DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.02.003

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