Voters and presidential intelligence

Jeffrey E. Cohen

Intelligence, 2018, vol. 71, issue C, 54-65

Abstract: Can voters accurately discern a president's intelligence and do the intelligence perceptions of voters affect their vote choice in presidential elections? Presidents scored as more intelligent by experts also score more highly on the presidential greatness rankings. Study 1 uses expert ratings of presidential intelligence to assess whether voter perceptions of presidential intelligence are accurate, using American National Election (ANES) survey data from 1980 through 2008 (n= 13276). Voters are moderately to weakly accurate in perceiving presidential intelligence (r = 0.24, p < 0.001). Study 2 asks whether perceptions of presidential candidate intelligence affects the vote choice, also using ANES survey data from 1980 through 2008 (n = 5965). There is approximately a 10% probability voting advantage for the maximum difference in perceptions of candidate intelligence, with controls for other variables that affect the vote choice. Results suggest that voters are moderately to weakly accurate in assessing presidential intelligence and prefer the more intelligent candidate in presidential elections.

Date: 2018
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intell:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:54-65

DOI: 10.1016/j.intell.2018.10.004

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