Multiple numeric competencies predict decision outcomes beyond fluid intelligence and cognitive reflection

Agata Sobkow, Angelika Olszewska and Jakub Traczyk

Intelligence, 2020, vol. 80, issue C

Abstract: The goal of the present study was to compare the relative contribution of different cognitive abilities and preferences to superior decision making. Additionally, we aimed to test whether skilled decision makers have better and more sophisticated long-term memory representations of personally meaningful risky situations. A large sample from the general population completed a series of tasks and questionnaires measuring cognitive abilities and preferences (fluid intelligence, cognitive reflection, and multiple numeric competencies: statistical numeracy, subjective numeracy, approximate numeracy) and decision making outcomes (a set of monetary lotteries and a self-report inventory measuring success in avoiding negative decision outcomes in real-life). We also designed a memory task in which participants were instructed to discriminate between decision outcomes presented in the first stage of the study and distractors. We found that multiple numeric competencies predicted decision making beyond fluid intelligence and cognitive reflection. Especially, the acuity of symbolic-number mapping (a measure of approximate numeracy) was the most robust single predictor of superior decision making. Moreover, a combination of different cognitive abilities contributed to a better understanding of decision outcomes. For example, superior decision making in monetary lotteries was best predicted by approximate numeracy, statistical numeracy, and fluid intelligence, while avoiding negative decision outcomes in real-life was best predicted by approximate and subjective numeracy. Finally, we demonstrated that people with high approximate numeracy had better memory for decision outcomes and produced more vivid mental representations, suggesting that memory processes can be crucial to superior decision making.

Keywords: Numeracy; Fluid intelligence; Multiple numeric competencies; Decision making; Memory; Cognitive reflection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160289620300301
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:intell:v:80:y:2020:i:c:s0160289620300301

DOI: 10.1016/j.intell.2020.101452

Access Statistics for this article

Intelligence is currently edited by R.J. Haier

More articles in Intelligence from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().