A new direct demand model of long-term forecasting air passengers and air transport movements at German airports

Marc Gelhausen, Peter Berster and Dieter Wilken

Journal of Air Transport Management, 2018, vol. 71, issue C, 140-152

Abstract: The German Aerospace Center has developed and applied a “classical†four-step model of forecasting passenger and flight volume at German airports for many years. However, it has become increasingly difficult to update and verify the model because of a lack of specific data. We have therefore developed a more versatile model based upon co-integration theory, which directly forecasts passenger and flight volume at German airports. The paper describes the model approaches and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of both the classical and new model approaches. The model includes demand shocks and estimated GDP-elasticity is 1.31. The model has been employed to estimate the effects of Brexit on traffic volume at German airports for the years 2016–2018.

Keywords: Air transport demand; Brexit; Forecasting; Co-integration; Regression model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699718301376
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:71:y:2018:i:c:p:140-152

DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2018.04.001

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Air Transport Management is currently edited by Anne Graham

More articles in Journal of Air Transport Management from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().