A dynamic ensemble selection method for bank telemarketing sales prediction

Yi Feng, Yunqiang Yin, Dujuan Wang and Lalitha Dhamotharan

Journal of Business Research, 2022, vol. 139, issue C, 368-382

Abstract: We propose a dynamic ensemble selection method, META-DES-AAP, to predict the success of bank telemarketing sales of time deposits. Unlike existing machine learning-based marketing sales prediction methods focusing only on prediction accuracy, META-DES-AAP considers the accuracy and average profit maximization. In META-DES-AAP, to consider both accuracy and average profit in the framework of dynamic ensemble selection using meta-training, a multi-objective optimization algorithm is designed to maximize the accuracy and average profit for base classifiers selection. Base classifiers suitable for each test telemarketing campaign are integrated according to the dynamic-based base classifiers integration method. Experimental results on bank telemarketing data show that META-DES-AAP achieves the best accuracy and the largest average profit when compared across several state-of-the-art machine learning methods. In addition, the factors influencing telemarketing on the average predicted probability of telemarketing success and average profit obtained by META-DES-AAP are analyzed.

Keywords: Time deposits; Multi-objective; Dynamic ensemble selection; Telemarketing sales; Marketing strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:139:y:2022:i:c:p:368-382

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2021.09.067

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