The golden rule of forecasting: Objections, refinements, and enhancements

Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth ()

Journal of Business Research, 2015, vol. 68, issue 8, 1702-1704

Abstract: In providing a “golden rule” for forecasting, Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (this issue) raise aspirations that reliable forecasting is possible. They advocate a conservative approach that mainly involves extrapolating from the present. We comment on three issues that relate to their proposed Golden Rule: its scope of application, the importance of highly improbable events, and the challenges of communicating forecasts.

Keywords: Conservative; Golden Rule; Scenario; Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:8:p:1702-1704

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.03.029

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