Is a more liberal approach to conservatism needed in forecasting?

Paul Goodwin

Journal of Business Research, 2015, vol. 68, issue 8, 1753-1754

Abstract: I discuss evidence that supports several of the principles put forward in the paper by Armstrong, Green, and Graefe (AGG), but argue that the packaging of these principles as a single “golden rule”’ and the use of the term “conservative” may lead to misunderstandings. Additional work should be carried out to investigate the extent to which these principles should be applied to probability and interval forecasts. Finally, good reasons may support why “rational” forecasters behave in ways that are inconsistent with the guidelines AGG provide in their golden-rule checklist.

Keywords: Forecasting; Conservatism; Probability forecasts; Prediction intervals (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148296315001502
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jbrese:v:68:y:2015:i:8:p:1753-1754

DOI: 10.1016/j.jbusres.2015.01.060

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Business Research is currently edited by A. G. Woodside

More articles in Journal of Business Research from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().