Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

Joanna Amirault and Patrick Lussier

Journal of Criminal Justice, 2011, vol. 39, issue 4, 344-354

Abstract: Purpose Two competing theories explain the link between past and future criminal behavior: population heterogeneity and state dependence. Actuarial models of risk prediction emphasize static variables, akin to population heterogeneity. State dependence, has never been tested with similar populations.Methods Using survival modeling this study examines both population heterogeneity and state dependence using a sample of adult sex offenders incarcerated in Quebec, Canada from 1994-2000. Analyses were conducted on offenders age 36 and over (n = 242). Official criminal activity was measured at: (a) 18-23 years; (b) 24-29 years; (c) 30-35 years; and, (d) 36 + years.Results Cox proportional hazards modeling shows stronger evidence for state dependence, suggesting changeability in risk over time.Conclusions Support was found for both offending continuity and discontinuity, or a mixed model of offending. Current actuarial risk assessment tools for adult sex offenders do not accommodate for the inclusion of state dependent and life-course processes, which could have implications for the potential overestimation of offender risk.

Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:39:y:2011:i:4:p:344-354

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