A dynamic factor model to predict homicides with firearm in the United States

Salvador Ramallo, Maximo Camacho, Manuel Ruiz Marín and Maurizio Porfiri

Journal of Criminal Justice, 2023, vol. 86, issue C

Abstract: Research on temporal dynamics of crime in the United States is growing. Yet, mathematical tools to reliably predict homicides with firearm are still lacking, due to delays in the release of official data lagging up to almost two years. This study takes a critical step in this direction by establishing a reliable statistical tool to predict homicides with firearm at a monthly resolution, combining official data and easy-to-access explanatory variables.

Keywords: AI; Autoregressive process; Dynamic factor model; Gun violence; Mathematical modeling; Time-series analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jcjust:v:86:y:2023:i:c:s0047235223000223

DOI: 10.1016/j.jcrimjus.2023.102051

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