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How should economists model climate? Tipping points and nonlinear dynamics of carbon dioxide concentrations

Jean-Paul Chavas (), Corbett Grainger and Nicholas Hudson

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2016, vol. 132, issue PB, 56-65

Abstract: Economists modeling climate policy face an array of choices when modeling climate change, including the role of uncertainty/ambiguity, irreversibility, and tipping points. After filtering out estimated cycles due to orbital climate forcing, we use a threshold quantile autoregressive model to characterize anomalies in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We then test for local instability and tipping points, and we characterize the stationary distribution of anomalies. We find evidence of nonlinear dynamics, tipping points and a non-normal stationary distribution.

Keywords: Tipping points; Threshold quantile autoregression; Nonlinear dynamics; Climate change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2016.01.013

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:132:y:2016:i:pb:p:56-65