Optimal stopping in the NBA: Sequential search and the shot clock

Matt Goldman and Justin M. Rao

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2017, vol. 136, issue C, 107-124

Abstract: We study how experienced agents solve a sequential search problem. In professional basketball teams must shoot within 24s of the start of a “possession.” The decision of when to shoot requires weighing the current shooting opportunity against the continuation value of a possession. At each second of the “shot clock,” optimal play requires that a lineup's reservation shot value equals the continuation value. We empirically test this prediction with a structural stopping model. Most lineups adopt a reservation threshold that matches the continuation value closely. Overall, the lineups we study capture 84% of the gains of a dynamic vs. an optimal fixed threshold. Lineups with more shared playing experience performed better on average. Observed mistakes lean towards “impatience” – the adopted threshold is either in too low or has excess steepness – meanings too many shots are taken early in the possession.

Keywords: Optimal stopping; Expertise; Lab vs. field; Behavioral biases; Marginal thinking (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C57 D03 D83 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (4)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:136:y:2017:i:c:p:107-124

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2017.02.012

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