Longer, more optimistic, lives: Historic optimism and life expectancy in the United States

Kelsey O'Connor and Carol Graham

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2019, vol. 168, issue C, 374-392

Abstract: How was optimism related to mortality before the rise in “deaths of despair” that began in the late 1990s? Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that as early as 1968 more optimistic people lived longer. The relationship depends on many factors including gender, race, health, and education. We then evaluate these and other variables as correlates of individual optimism over the period 1968–1975. We find women and African Americans were less optimistic at the time than men and whites, although this changed beginning in the late 1970′s. Greater education is associated with greater optimism and so is having wealthy parents. We then predict optimism for the same individuals in subsequent years, thus generating our best guess as to how optimism changed for various demographic groups from 1976–1995. We find people with less than a high school degree had the greatest declines in optimism, a trend with long-run links to premature mortality and deaths of despair. Our findings highlight the importance of better understanding optimism's causes and consequences.

Keywords: Mortality; Optimism; Expectations; Deaths of despair; Demographic trends; Prediction (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 I10 J11 N32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Working Paper: Longer, More Optimistic, Lives: Historic Optimism and Life Expectancy in the United States (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:168:y:2019:i:c:p:374-392

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.10.018

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