The economic consequences of durable left-populist regimes in Latin America

Samuel Absher, Kevin Grier and Robin Grier ()

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2020, vol. 177, issue C, 787-817

Abstract: We study the economic effects of durable left-populist leaders in Latin America. Using synthetic control to create a credible counterfactual for four such regimes, we find that they have, on average, a negative, significant, and sizeable average effect on income. Specifically, these countries at the end of their treatment periods end up over 20% poorer on average than what the average of their synthetic counterfactuals predict. We find negative and significant single country effects on real per-capita GDP in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Bolivia. Only in Ecuador does GDP keep up with its synthetic counterfactual. We investigate whether there is a trade-off, where national income was sacrificed to improve inequality or health. We find no significant average counter-veiling trade-off in decreased levels of income inequality or infant mortality relative to what the average synthetic predicts.

Keywords: Economic performance; Infant mortality; Inequality; Synthetic control; Latin America; Populism; Checks & balances (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I14 O11 O54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (28)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:177:y:2020:i:c:p:787-817

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.07.001

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