Economics at your fingertips  

Testing the efficiency of inflation and exchange rate forecast revisions in a changing economic environment

Ana Iregui (), Hector Nuñez and Jesus Otero

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2021, vol. 187, issue C, 290-314

Abstract: We use the Banco de la República expectations survey of external economic analysts to study whether fixed-event individual forecasts of inflation and exchange rate are updated efficiently when new information becomes available. To this end, we test for weak-form and strong-form efficiency. The novel aspects of this paper are that we relax the individual homogeneity assumption, and consider a forecasters’ information set that contains a large number of empirically relevant variables. We address model selection using two of the most popular methods available in the penalised regression literature, and a new form of multiple testing. Our results show that more than half of the analysts’ revisions are independent of one another (weakly efficient). Also, conditional on passing weak efficiency, we find that analysts use past values of inflation and exchange rate changes to revise their forecasts and a broader array of variables during periods of market instability.

Keywords: Fixed-event forecasts; Weak-form efficiency; Strong-form efficiency; Expectations (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 D84 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

Downloads: (external link)
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link:

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.037

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization is currently edited by Houser, D. and Puzzello, D.

More articles in Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().

Page updated 2024-07-01
Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:187:y:2021:i:c:p:290-314