Outcome bias in self-evaluations: Quasi-experimental field evidence from Swiss driving license exams

Pascal Flurin Meier, Raphael Flepp, Philippe Meier and Egon Franck

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2022, vol. 201, issue C, 292-309

Abstract: Exploiting a quasi-experimental field setting, we examine whether people are outcome biased when self-evaluating their past decisions. Using data from Swiss driving license exams, we find that candidates who narrowly passed the theoretical driving exam are significantly less likely to pass the subsequent practical driving exam – which is taken several months after the theoretical exam – than those who narrowly failed. Those candidates who passed the theoretical exam on their first attempt receive more objections regarding their momentary, on-the-spot decisions in the practical exam, consistent with the idea that the underlying behavioral difference is worse preparation.

Keywords: Outcome bias; Self-evaluation; Behavioral economics; Judgment; Regression discontinuity design (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D81 D83 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:201:y:2022:i:c:p:292-309

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.07.013

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