The aging society: Is growth reverting to pre-industrial levels in the 21st century?

Jakob Madsen

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2025, vol. 229, issue C

Abstract: The aging population is expected by many to put an end to the high growth rates experienced in the past century. This paper shows that the aging population and the associated educational and innovative expansion induced by the demographic transition will expand the technology frontier in the 21st century and significantly override the adverse income effects of the aging population. To achieve this, the total income-effects through the channels of innovations, investment, education, and labor force participation are estimated using data over two centuries for 21 OECD countries.

Keywords: Aging; Productivity growth; Education; Innovations; Endogenous Labor market participation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O00 O10 O30 O40 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
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Working Paper: The Aging Society: Is Growth Reverting to Pre-Industrial Levels in the 21st Century? (2024)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:229:y:2025:i:c:s0167268124004633

DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106849

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