Global vulnerability of crop yields to climate change

Ian Sue Wing, Enrica De Cian and Malcolm N. Mistry

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2021, vol. 109, issue C

Abstract: Using a newly-available panel dataset of gridded annual crop yields in conjunction with a dynamic econometric model that distinguishes between farmers' short-run and long-run responses to weather shocks and accounts for adaptation, we investigate the risk to global crop yields from climate warming. Over broad spatial domains we observe only slight moderation of short-run impacts by farmers' long-run adjustments. In the absence of additional margins of adaptation beyond those pursued historically, projections constructed using an ensemble of 21 climate model simulations suggest that the climate change could reduce global crop yields by 3–12% by mid-century and 11–25% by century's end, under a vigorous warming scenario.

Keywords: Panel data; Climate change; Adaptation; Crop yields (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: N5 O13 Q1 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (20)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:109:y:2021:i:c:s0095069621000450

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102462

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