Extreme weather and the politics of climate change: A study of campaign finance and elections

Yanjun Liao and Pablo Ruiz Junco

Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2022, vol. 111, issue C

Abstract: This paper studies how extreme weather and natural disasters affect campaign contributions and elections. Weather events associated with climate change may influence these outcomes by leading voters to re-evaluate the incumbent politician’s environmental position. In a short-run analysis, we find that the number of online contributions to the Democratic Party increases in response to higher weekly temperature, with a larger effect in counties with more anti-environment incumbent politicians. In a medium-run analysis, we find that, when a natural disaster strikes, the election becomes more competitive if the incumbent leans more anti-environment: total campaign contributions increase for both candidates and the increase is skewed toward the challenger, the race is more likely to be contested, and the incumbent is less likely to be re-elected. These results suggest that extreme weather events carry a moderate electoral penalty for anti-environment incumbents during 1990–2012. This mechanism will likely play a more important role as the public awareness of climate change continues to increase.

Keywords: Climate change beliefs; Natural disasters; Campaign finance; Elections (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D91 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:111:y:2022:i:c:s0095069621001078

DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102550

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