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Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory

Hippolyte d'Albis (), Angela Greulich and Gregory Ponthiere ()

Journal of Economic Theory, 2018, vol. 177, issue C, 461-494

Abstract: During the last century, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a Unified Growth Theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for cohorts 1906–1975 of the Human Fertility Database.

Keywords: Fertility; Childbearing age; Births postponement; Human capital; Regime shift (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J11 J13 O12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Working Paper: Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018)
Working Paper: Development, Fertility and Childbearing Age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018) Downloads
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