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Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory

Hippolyte d'Albis (), Angela Greulich and Grégory Ponthière
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Grégory Ponthière: ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, PSE - Paris School of Economics, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS Paris - École normale supérieure - Paris - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

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Abstract: During the last two centuries, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a unified growth theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in higher education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in higher education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for Swedish cohorts born between 1876 and 1966.

Keywords: regime shift; human capital; fertility; childbearing age; births postponement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-edu and nep-gro
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01452846
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Related works:
Journal Article: Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Development, Fertility and Childbearing Age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Development, fertility and childbearing age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018)
Working Paper: Development, Fertility and Childbearing Age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Development, Fertility and Childbearing Age: A Unified Growth Theory (2018) Downloads
Working Paper: Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory (2017) Downloads
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