 Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE modelMaria Sassi () and Alberto Cardaci Food Policy, 2013, vol. 43, issue C, 321-331 Abstract: The paper aims at analysing the impact of the likely change in rainfall on food availability and access to food in Sudan. The empirical investigation is based on an integrated approach consisting of a stochastic method and CGE model. The former, related to the Monte Carlo analysis, provides the likely changes in rainfall patterns and their probability of occurrence based on historical data. These results are at the basis of the scenarios simulated in a standard CGE model augmented with a stochastic component. Achievements underline the negative impact on the two dimensions of food security taken into consideration, mainly due to a reduction in cereal supply, a marked cereal inflation pressure and income contraction; the greater negative effect on the poorest households; and a deterioration of the economic performance of the country. In this context, the paper stresses a strong interconnection among climate change and variability, poverty and food insecurity and thus the need for an integrated policy-making approach. Keywords: Rainfall patterns; Food security; Stochastic approach; CGE; Sudan (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:43:y:2013:i:c:p:321-331 DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2013.06.002 Access Statistics for this article Food Policy is currently edited by J. Kydd More articles in Food Policy from Elsevier |
Is your work missing from RePEc? Here is how to contribute.
Questions or problems? Check the EconPapers FAQ or send mail to .
EconPapers is hosted by the
School of Business at Örebro University.