Issues and strategies in ex-post evaluation of intervention against animal disease outbreaks and spread

Mohamadou L. Fadiga and Hikuepi B. Katjiuongua

Food Policy, 2014, vol. 49, issue P2, 418-424

Abstract: Animal disease outbreaks pose a significant threat in terms of potential economic losses, reduced productivity, and negative impacts on public health, food security and nutrition. This paper considers four issues in ex-post evaluation of animal disease interventions: firstly, a counterfactual involves simulating disease trajectories without the intervention. But some diseases can become endemic or become dormant after an outbreak, making it a challenge to know the true trajectory without the intervention. Secondly, without adequate design of controls and treatments, how can the estimated impacts be attributed to a given intervention? Thirdly, how do we assess costs saved by the intervention? Fourthly, given data uncertainty, would a stochastic simulation give better estimates than a deterministic one in solving for key variables? This paper addresses these issues and proposes solutions that bridge the gap between household level analysis and macro-level simulations in modelling the impact of animal diseases outbreaks.

Keywords: Animal disease outbreaks; Avoidable losses; Incremental benefits; Ex-post impact assessment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:49:y:2014:i:p2:p:418-424

DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2014.10.007

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