How do inputs and weather drive wheat yield volatility? The example of Germany

Hakon Albers, Christoph Gornott and Silke Hüttel

Food Policy, 2017, vol. 70, issue C, 50-61

Abstract: Increases in cereals production risk are commonly related to increases in weather risk. We analyze weather-induced changes in wheat yield volatility as a systemic weather risk in Germany. We disentangle, however, the relative impacts of inputs and weather on regional yield volatility. For this purpose we augment a production function with phenologically aggregated weather variables. Increasing volatility can be traced back to weather changes only in some regions. On average, inputs explain 49% of the total actual wheat yield volatility, while weather explains 43%. Models with only weather variables deliver biased but reasonable approximations for climate impact research.

Keywords: Yield; Wheat; Variability; Risk; Weather; Common Agricultural Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:70:y:2017:i:c:p:50-61

DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2017.05.001

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