How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries

Philippe Bracke

Journal of Housing Economics, 2013, vol. 22, issue 3, 213-230

Abstract: This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40years for 19 OECD countries. Both upturns and downturns display duration dependence: they are more likely to end as their duration increases. Downturns display also lagged duration dependence: they are less likely to end if the previous upturn was particularly long. These patterns are consistent with a boom-bust view of housing price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain and busts serve as readjustment periods. Findings are robust to the inclusion of macroeconomic variables, which allow for the estimation of additional determinants of house price expansions and contractions.

Keywords: Housing cycles; House prices; Duration dependence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C41 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (59)

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Working Paper: How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries (2011)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:22:y:2013:i:3:p:213-230

DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2013.06.001

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