How Long Do Housing Cycles Last? a Duration Analysis for 19 OECD Countries

Philippe Bracke

No 2011/231, IMF Working Papers from International Monetary Fund

Abstract: This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.

Keywords: WP; house price upturn; upturn equation; interest rate; Housing Cycles; House Prices; Duration Dependence; house price downturn; downturn equation; duration term; downturn duration; Housing prices; Housing; Business cycles; Inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29
Date: 2011-10-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (21)

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Journal Article: How long do housing cycles last? A duration analysis for 19 OECD countries (2013)
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