The impact of uncertainty shocks on state-level employment

William Hankins, Chak Hung Jack Cheng and Anna-Leigh Stone

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2022, vol. 73, issue C

Abstract: Using U.S. data over the period 1960Q3–2019Q4 we estimate a structural factor-augmented vector autoregressive model and find that a one standard deviation shock to macroeconomic uncertainty generates declines in state-level employment growth that range from -0.02 to -0.12 percentage points at their peak negative response. Cross-sectional regressions show that industry mix is an important channel through which uncertainty shocks affect employment growth. In particular, a state with a larger manufacturing sector experiences a larger decline in employment growth.

Keywords: FAVAR; Uncertainty; Employment; State-level effects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 J01 L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S016407042200026X
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:73:y:2022:i:c:s016407042200026x

DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2022.103426

Access Statistics for this article

Journal of Macroeconomics is currently edited by Douglas McMillin and Theodore Palivos

More articles in Journal of Macroeconomics from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().