Effects of amount of information on judgment accuracy and confidence

Claire I. Tsai, Joshua Klayman and Reid Hastie

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2008, vol. 107, issue 2, 97-105

Abstract: When a person evaluates his or her confidence in a judgment, what is the effect of receiving more judgment-relevant information? We report three studies that show when judges receive more information, their confidence increases more than their accuracy, producing substantial confidence-accuracy discrepancies. Our results suggest that judges do not adjust for the cognitive limitations that reduce their ability to use additional information effectively. We place these findings in a more general framework of understanding the cues to confidence that judges use and how those cues relate to accuracy and calibration.

Keywords: Judgment; Confidence; Accuracy; Football; Overconfidence; Calibration (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (22)

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