Excessive confidence in visually-based estimates

Eduardo B. Andrade

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2011, vol. 116, issue 2, 252-261

Abstract: People exhibit excessive confidence in visually-based estimates, which in turn biases decision making. Three experiments support this assertion. Experiment 1 shows a strong impact of presentation format on estimation of proportions. Experiment 2 shows that people rely on these erroneous estimates to make incentive-compatible decisions even when objective information can be easily obtained. Experiment 3 demonstrates that the biased decisions disappear when confidence in visually-based estimates is called into question by the perceived complexity of the stimulus.

Keywords: Overconfidence; Risk perception; Risk taking; Visual perception; Probability estimates; Gambling; Global processing; Numerosity; Likelihood judgment (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:116:y:2011:i:2:p:252-261

DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2011.07.002

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