Context affects the interpretation of low but not high numerical probabilities: A hypothesis testing account of subjective probability

Baler Bilgin and Lyle Brenner

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2013, vol. 121, issue 1, 118-128

Abstract: Low numerical probabilities tend to be directionally ambiguous, meaning they can be interpreted either positively, suggesting the occurrence of the target event, or negatively, suggesting its non-occurrence. High numerical probabilities, however, are typically interpreted positively. We argue that the greater directional ambiguity of low numerical probabilities may make them more susceptible than high probabilities to contextual influences. Results from five experiments supported this premise, with perceived base rate affecting the interpretation of an event’s numerical posterior probability more when it was low than high. The effect is consistent with a confirmatory hypothesis testing process, with the relevant perceived base rate suggesting the directional hypothesis which people then test in a confirmatory manner.

Keywords: Numerical probabilities; Directional ambiguity; Perceived base rates; Subjective probability; Hypothesis testing; Base rate neglect; Debiasing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2013
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:121:y:2013:i:1:p:118-128

DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2013.01.004

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