Confidence and the description–experience distinction

Tomás Lejarraga and José Lejarraga

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2020, vol. 161, issue C, 201-212

Abstract: In this paper, we extend the literature on the description–experience gap in risky choices by focusing on how the mode of learning—through description or experience—affects confidence. Specifically, we explore how learning through description or experience affects confidence in (1) the information gathered to make a decision and (2) the resulting choice. In two preregistered experiments we tested whether there was a description–experience gap in both dimensions of confidence. Learning from description was associated with higher confidence—both in the information gathered and in the choice made—than was learning from experience. In a third preregistered experiment, we examined the effect of sample size on confidence in decisions from experience. Contrary to the normative view that larger samples foster confidence in statistical inference, we observed that more experience led to less confidence. This observation is reminiscent of recent theories of deliberate ignorance, which highlight the adaptive benefits of deliberately limiting information search.

Keywords: Confidence; Confidence in choice; Confidence in information; Decisions under risk; Decisions under uncertainty; Experience-based choice; Description-based choice; Description–experience gap; Sampling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:jobhdp:v:161:y:2020:i:c:p:201-212

DOI: 10.1016/j.obhdp.2020.07.003

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