Rainfall shocks and land conflicts: Evidence from rural Uganda and Kenya

Rayner Tabetando, Francisco M.P. Mugizi and Djomo Choumbou Raoul Fani

Land Use Policy, 2025, vol. 150, issue C

Abstract: This study examines the impact of negative rainfall shocks on farmland conflicts among smallholder households in Kenya and Uganda. By matching farm-level data with rainfall shocks data constructed from high-resolution precipitation data, the study provides estimates on the incidence of land conflicts. Using fixed effect models, the results indicate that communities in both Kenya and Uganda that have experienced negative rainfall shocks have a land conflict incidence that is at least 4 percentage points higher compared to those that have not experienced such shocks. In both Kenya and Uganda, further analysis reveals that the incidence of land inheritance conflict is at least 1.1 percentage points higher in communities that are prone to negative rainfall shocks compared to those that have not experienced such shocks. Although both countries show significantly lower levels of land conflicts on registered (titled) parcels, land registration does not seem to reduce the incidence of land conflicts in communities that are prone to negative rainfall shocks. Therefore, we recommend implementing measures to manage rainfall variability—such as improved irrigation systems or drought-resistant crops—communities may experience less pressure on resources, thus reducing the likelihood of conflicts arising from land scarcity.

Keywords: Land conflicts; Agriculture; Climate; Uganda; Kenya (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D63 O12 Q15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837725000092
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:lauspo:v:150:y:2025:i:c:s0264837725000092

DOI: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2025.107476

Access Statistics for this article

Land Use Policy is currently edited by Jaap Zevenbergen

More articles in Land Use Policy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joice Jiang ().