Mathematical modelling of Zika virus as a mosquito-borne and sexually transmitted disease with diffusion effects

Bushra Hasan, Manmohan Singh, David Richards and Aaron Blicblau

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2019, vol. 166, issue C, 56-75

Abstract: Zika virus disease is an infection transmitted primarily by Aedes mosquitoes, and can be a serious epidemic if not contained and controlled in its early stages. The purpose of this study is to investigate the transmission dynamics of Zika virus epidemic. A mathematical model of Zika virus with the inclusion of diffusion in the system is formulated, using a system of ordinary differential equations. Mathematical models assume transmission of the virus by mosquitoes, with and without transmission through sexual contact by humans. The basic properties of the model in the absence and presence of diffusion are determined including, points of the disease-free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE). Stability of the disease-free equilibrium using the reproduction number, R0 is established. The stability of the endemic equilibrium is established using the Routh–Hurwitz stability conditions. Bifurcation values for transmission rates and human recovery rate are also calculated. Numerical simulations based on different population distributions help to understand how the diffusion of human and mosquitoes affects the transmission of the disease.

Keywords: Zika virus; Equilibrium; Disease-free equilibrium; Endemic equilibrium; Stability; Diffusion (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:166:y:2019:i:c:p:56-75

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2019.04.007

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