Maximal reproduction number estimation and identification of transmission rate from the first inflection point of new infectious cases waves: COVID-19 outbreak example

J. Waku, K. Oshinubi and J. Demongeot

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2022, vol. 198, issue C, 47-64

Abstract: The dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic varies across countries and it is important for​ researchers to study different kind of phenomena observed at different stages of the waves during the epidemic period. Our interest in this paper is not to model what happened during the endemic state but during the epidemic state. We proposed a continuous formulation of a unique maximum reproduction number estimate with an assumption that the epidemic curve is in form of the Gaussian curve and then compare the model with the discrete form and the observed basic reproduction number during the contagiousness period considered. Furthermore, we estimated the transmission rate from identification of the first inflection point of a wave of the curve of daily new infectious cases using the Bernoulli S–I (Susceptible–Infected) equation. We applied this new method to the real data from Cameroon COVID-19 outbreak both at national and regional levels. High correlation was observed between the socio-economic parameters and epidemiology parameters at regional level in Cameroon. Also, the method was applied to the second wave COVID-19 outbreak for the world data which is a period the phenomena we are considering were observed. Lastly, it was observed that the models presented results correspond with the epidemic dynamics in Cameroon and World data. We recommend that it is important to study what happened during the growth inflection point as some countries data did not climax.

Keywords: Bernoulli; COVID-19; Epidemic; Inflection point; Reproduction number (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:198:y:2022:i:c:p:47-64

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.02.023

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