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On a quantile autoregressive conditional duration model

Helton Saulo, Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan and Roberto Vila

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 2023, vol. 203, issue C, 425-448

Abstract: Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are primarily used to deal with data arising from times between two successive events. These models are usually specified in terms of a time-varying conditional mean or median duration. In this work, we relax this assumption and consider a conditional quantile approach to facilitate the modeling of different percentiles. The proposed ACD quantile model is based on a skewed version of Birnbaum–Saunders distribution, which yields better fit of the tails than the traditional Birnbaum–Saunders distribution, in addition to facilitating the implementation of an expectation conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. A Monte Carlo simulation study is performed to assess the behavior of the model as well as the parameter estimation method and the evaluation of a form of residuals. Two real financial transaction data sets are finally analyzed to illustrate the proposed approach.

Keywords: Skewed Birnbaum–Saunders distribution; Conditional quantile; ECM algorithm; Monte Carlo simulation; Financial transaction data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:203:y:2023:i:c:p:425-448

DOI: 10.1016/j.matcom.2022.06.032

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