The use of cutsets in Monte Carlo analysis of stochastic networks

C.E. Sigal, A.A.B. Pritsker and J.J. Solberg

Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), 1979, vol. 21, issue 4, 376-384

Abstract: Monte Carlo methods utilizing a new network concept, Uniformly Directed Cutsets (UDCs), are presented for analyzing directed, acyclic networks with probabilistic arc durations. The procedures involve sampling arc values for arcs not on a UDC and utilizing known probability information for arcs on a UDC. This approach results in less sampling effort and less associated variance than a straightforward simulation approach. A proof of this variance reduction is offered. The procedures provide estimates for project completion time distributions, criticality indices, minimum time distributions and path optimality indices. All of these network performance measures are useful to decision makers in project planning. Application areas include PERT-type network planning, equipment replacement analysis, reliability modeling, stochastic dynamic programming problems and maximal flow problems.

Date: 1979
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:matcom:v:21:y:1979:i:4:p:376-384

DOI: 10.1016/0378-4754(79)90007-7

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